HeatScape examines the impact of electrifying both existing and future heat networks on the electricity grid, and how their operational flexibility can be harnessed. By using public datasets to map potential uptake of district heating and modelling various decarbonisation scenarios, the project will provide improved insights into future demand to support more informed network planning decisions.
What is the project about?
HeatScape focuses on understanding the growing role of electrified heat networks in the transition to Net Zero. These networks typically supply space heating and hot water to multiple buildings from centralised energy centres, and are expected to play a significant role in decarbonising heat. This transition is likely to impact the electricity grid, particularly in urban areas where network capacity is already constrained.
Building on earlier work carried out under the Flex Heat Networks project, HeatScape concentrates on mapping, modelling and assessing the impact of heat network decarbonisation within UK Power Networks’ licence areas. The project uses publicly available datasets to identify the potential uptake of electrified heat networks, followed by modelling the behaviour of energy centres under both flexible and inflexible operational scenarios. The results are then integrated into UK Power Networks’ forecasting systems.
HeatScape aims to improve understanding of the current and future state of heat networks, their growth, and their decarbonisation as part of the Net Zero transition. By enhancing forecasting capabilities, the project supports better planning for network upgrades. Finally, it explores customer attitudes towards flexibility to gain insight into the potential for future demand-side participation.
How we’re doing it
As part of the HeatScape project, we map existing heat networks across UK Power Networks’ licence areas using publicly available datasets, to better understand their number, location and key characteristics. We then model their energy centres to explore how heat demand translates into electricity demand under different decarbonisation scenarios involving electrification.
In parallel, we use public datasets to identify where future heat networks are likely to emerge and prioritise key areas of interest. These future networks are also modelled to represent a range of operational behaviours once electrified. The findings from both existing and future network modelling are integrated into UK Power Networks’ forecasting system, enabling assessment of their potential impact on the electricity grid.
Finally, we are carrying out market research with heat network customers to gain insights into attitudes towards flexibility, helping us understand how and when demand-side participation may be feasible.
What makes it innovative
HeatScape addresses a growing challenge in the energy transition: how to anticipate and manage the impact of electrified heat networks on local electricity grids.
It is the first project to combine several innovative approaches: the integration of multiple public datasets to identify priority areas for emerging heat networks, the modelling of different operational scenarios to assess flexibility and the direct incorporation of these results into UK Power Networks’ forecasting tools.
By examining both existing and potential future networks, and modelling their operation under various decarbonisation scenarios, HeatScape offers a more detailed and accurate view of future electricity demand. The project also includes customer engagement to understand the appetite for flexibility among heat network users.
HeatScape brings together experts from Arup and ERM, with operational insight provided by Bring Energy. This collaborative approach ensures the modelling reflects real-world conditions and delivers practical, actionable insights.
What we’re learning
HeatScape is providing new insights into how the decarbonisation of heat networks will influence electricity demand. The project is supporting UK Power Networks in making more informed and realistic plans for the role of electrified heat in a Net Zero future.
Key learnings include:
A clearer picture of the current heat network landscape – including the location of existing networks, their key characteristics and patterns of heat consumption
Data-driven forecasts of future heat network development – using geospatial, planning and energy data to identify where new networks are most likely to emerge
Insight into the impact of electrified energy centres – showing how the transition from fossil-fuelled systems to electric heat sources will affect the electricity network under different flexibility scenarios
An understanding of customer and market attitudes towards flexibility – including the factors that drive or limit willingness to engage in demand-side participation.
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