Data and Digitalisation

Therma-Stats

Project Data

Start date:

01/05/2026

End date:

30/07/2027

Budget:

£512,137

Summary

Therma-stats is a research project exploring how heat pumps can be used more flexibly to support the electricity network. By improving our understanding of heat pump behaviour and flexibility, the project will help UK Power Networks make more accurate forecasts of future electricity demand. This will support more efficient network planning and investment, helping to deliver a cost-effective transition to Net Zero.

What is the project about?

As more households adopt heat pumps to reduce carbon emissions, electricity demand is expected to increase. While UK Power Networks can estimate overall heat pump demand, there is less understanding of how flexibly these devices can operate.

Therma-stats will explore how factors such as insulation, heating systems and building design influence a home’s ability to shift heating demand away from peak periods without affecting comfort. The findings will improve demand forecasting and help identify where flexibility can support the network.

By enabling smarter planning and making better use of existing capacity, the project could reduce costs, minimise the need for some network upgrades and support the transition to Net Zero.

How we’re doing it

Therma-Stats will develop Energy Flexibility Certificates for homes across UK Power Networks’ licence areas. Similar to Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs), these certificates will estimate how much flexibility a property can provide based on its characteristics, helping us better understand how heat pump demand could be shifted away from peak periods.

The project will begin by reviewing existing research and findings from previous innovation projects. It will then use housing data to build a picture of the homes connected to our network and group properties with similar characteristics, such as size, insulation levels and heating systems.

Using this information, the project will estimate how much flexibility different homes could provide by adjusting when heat pumps operate, while maintaining customer comfort. Factors such as a building’s size, construction and insulation levels will be used to assess its ability to store heat and shift demand away from busy times.

The resulting Energy Flexibility Certificates will be incorporated into existing forecasting tools, enabling UK Power Networks to test different future scenarios and understand how flexible heat pump operation could affect network demand.

By combining these insights across different property types and locations, the project will provide a more accurate picture of future electricity demand. This will support smarter network planning, help target investment where it is needed most and make better use of existing network capacity as heat pump adoption grows.

What makes it innovative

Therma-stats will develop a new way to estimate how much flexibility homes with heat pumps can provide, based on factors such as building type, insulation and heating systems.

By creating Energy Flexibility Certificates, the project will help identify where heating demand can be shifted away from peak periods without affecting comfort. These insights will improve demand forecasting and give network planners a more accurate understanding of future electricity use.

As heat pumps are expected to become a major source of electricity demand growth after 2035, understanding their flexibility could help make better use of existing network capacity, reduce the need for some upgrades and support the transition to Net Zero at lower cost.

What we’re learning

The project will provide valuable insights into how heat pumps can support a more flexible and efficient electricity system. Specifically, it will help us understand:

How factors such as insulation, property size and a home’s ability to retain heat influence heat pump flexibility.
How flexibility varies across different types of homes and geographic locations.
The extent to which heat pumps could help reduce electricity demand during peak periods.
How flexibility can be reflected in future network planning and demand forecasting.
How Energy Flexibility Certificates could support more informed network investment decisions.

The project will also build on learning from previous innovation projects, including Neighbourhood Green and Know My Flex. By combining these insights, Therma-stats will create a more detailed understanding of heat pump flexibility and its potential to support the electricity network as low-carbon heating adoption grows.

Reports & Documents

Therma-Stats - NIA Project Registration and PEA Document

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Project Data